Relative Strength & Strategy Insights | Updated: Feb 15, 2026 at 06:02:20
Stronger-than-expected employment data (130k jobs vs 70k expected), high ISM Manufacturing PMI (52.6 vs 48.2 forecast), and robust services PMI (53.8). Positive economic indicators outweigh mixed consumer sentiment.
Mixed data: German factory orders surged 7.8% vs -4.2% forecast, but German industrial production fell -1.9% vs 0.3% forecast. Inflation remains subdued (1.7% YoY vs 1.8% forecast). ECB holding rates steady at 2.15%.
Renewed verbal intervention threats from Tokyo supporting yen strength. Monetary base contraction (-9.5% YoY) and weak household spending (-2.6% YoY vs 3.2% forecast) suggest continued BOJ policy support.
BoE holding rates at 3.75% with dovish tilt (4 MPC members voted for cut vs 5 previously). Housing data mixed with Nationwide prices up 0.3% MoM but Halifax showing 0.7% MoM gain. GDP growth modest at 0.2%.
Australian market significantly lower, mining and tech weakness. Building permits plunged -14.9% MoM vs -4.0% forecast. RBA holding rates at 3.85% amid deteriorating construction (-19.4 manufacturing index) and trade balance below expectations.
USD/CAD rising in New York session. Unemployment rate steady at 6.5% but employment change negative (-24.8k vs -10.0k forecast). Ivey PMI at 50.9 vs 51.5 forecast suggests slowing economic momentum.
Employment growth positive (0.5% QoQ vs 0.2% forecast) but building permits weak (-4.6% MoM). Dairy prices up 6.7% providing some support. RBNZ likely maintaining cautious stance.
Swiss market ended positive after choppy session. Retail sales strong (1.0% MoM vs 0.4% forecast) but unemployment ticked up to 3.2% vs 3.1% forecast. Manufacturing PMI improved to 48.8 but remains contractionary.
| Strategy Pair | Action | Target | Strategy Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD & GBP/USD | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -150 pips | Isolating USD strength by shorting two European currencies with mixed fundamentals against the strong dollar. Both EUR and GBP face dovish central banks while USD shows robust economic data. |
| AUD/JPY & NZD/JPY | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -180 pips | Isolating JPY strength against commodity currencies. Yen supported by intervention threats while AUD and NZD face domestic weakness and China-related risks from Asian market corrections. |
| EUR/CHF & GBP/CHF | LONG BASKET | Dist: +100 pips | Isolating CHF weakness against European peers. Swiss unemployment rising and manufacturing contractionary, while EUR and GBP have more policy flexibility from their central banks. |
| USD/CAD & USD/CHF | LONG BASKET | Dist: +140 pips | Isolating USD strength against two currencies with weakening fundamentals. CAD faces employment deterioration while CHF shows economic softness, contrasting with robust US data. |
| AUD/USD & NZD/USD | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -160 pips | Isolating USD strength against commodity currencies. Both AUD and NZD showing domestic weakness (AUD construction collapse, NZD building permits down) while USD benefits from strong employment and manufacturing. |
| EUR/JPY & GBP/JPY | SHORT BASKET | Dist: -130 pips | Isolating JPY strength against European currencies. Yen supported by intervention while EUR and GBP face mixed economic data and dovish central bank stances, creating favorable risk-reward for JPY longs. |